For decades, diamonds transformed Botswana from one of the world’s poorest nations into an African success story, funding health, education, and infrastructure. The gems became part of the national identity, with the industry priding itself on conflict-free stones that built the country. Workers like Keorapetse Koko earned a living cutting and polishing the stones, supporting their families in a nation where diamonds accounted for 80% of foreign earnings.
Now, the economy is buckling under pressure from mass-produced lab-grown diamonds. Revenues for the major producer Debswana halved last year, leading to mine closures and widespread layoffs. A 43% drop in diamond output marks the steepest fall in the country’s modern mining history, with the World Bank projecting a 3% economic contraction. The U.S. has also imposed a 15% tariff, worsening the crisis.
Lab-grown diamonds, once a marginal product, now make up nearly 20% of global sales and most new U.S. engagement rings. Marketed as cheaper and eco-friendly, their appeal is fueled by celebrities and social media. This surge has caused natural diamond prices to fall 30% since 2022, leaving an entire nation that built its prosperity on a single natural resource at a critical and uncertain juncture.
